US QSR / Casual Dining — Airgo SoS Sector Report

Food & Beverage · 200 brands · trailing 12 months · US market

Updated October 2026 · data through 4 Oct 2026

This is the living Share of Search picture for the US QSR / Casual Dining sector — each brand's slice of total search interest, the leading indicator of where market share is heading. It tracks 200 brands over the trailing twelve months and refreshes every month. Starbucks currently leads with 7.3% average Share of Search in a competitive field.

Share of search over time

Five years of weekly Share of Search for the current leaders. Starbucks sets the pace, with its nearest challenger McDonald's 1.3 points back. Click any brand in the legend to isolate it, hover for the exact weekly reading, or drag the slider beneath the chart to zoom into a single period.

The last 12 months of weekly Share of Search per brand — the current value, the shape of the year, and the gap to the brand's own 12-month average.

Current standings (last 12m)

Starbucks holds 7.3% of sector search, with 12 brands clearing the 2% mark. Toggle between the twelve-month average and the latest month to see who is over- or under-indexing right now.

Year-over-year movers (last 12m)

Versus Oct 2025, McDonald's has gained the most ground (+1.25pp), while Dunkin' has given up the most (-0.94pp). The split between green and red is the clearest read on where attention is migrating within the sector.

Market concentration (last 5y)

Over the last five years the QSR / Casual Dining sector's concentration has held broadly steady. It currently averages an HHI of 232 (competitive), with the top three brands holding 17.6% of search interest between them.

Growth–share momentum map (last 12m)

Each dot is a brand, placed by its average Share of Search (horizontal) against its average week-over-week momentum (vertical). The four quadrants separate the leaders pulling away from the vulnerable incumbents and the rising challengers. Wendy's is both large and growing (top-right); First Watch is a smaller challenger on the rise (top-left). Hover any point for its exact figures.

Seasonality by month (5y average)

Each cell is a brand's average Share of Search in that calendar month over the last five years, indexed to the brand's own average (100). Warm cells are a brand's hot months, cool cells its quiet ones. The strongest seasonal peak belongs to Starbucks in November (index 126); the deepest trough is Texas Roadhouse in September (index 75).

Notable search spikes (last 6m)

The largest statistically unusual jumps or drops in a brand's weekly Share of Search over the last 6 months, each paired with the most likely cause. A spike is flagged when a brand's search interest moves several standard deviations from its recent norm; the magnitude is the size of that move against the brand's own baseline. Direction shows whether interest rose or fell.

Showing the 15 largest of 40 flagged spikes in the last 6 months.

Brand correlations (last 12m)

How brands' weekly Share of Search moved relative to one another over the last 12 months. A positive correlation means two brands rise and fall together — a shared audience, consideration set, or category-level demand. A negative correlation means that when one gains search attention the other tends to lose it — a sign of direct substitutes competing for the same interest.

Move together — strongest positive

These brands tend to rise and fall in tandem, pointing to a shared audience or a category-level wave lifting them at the same time.

Move apart — strongest negative

When one of these brands gains search share the other tends to give it up — the clearest read on direct substitutes. Note that Share of Search is a slice of a fixed 100%, so a little negative correlation is structural (strongest between the largest brands); similarly sized pairs are the more telling substitution signals.

Economic factors (last 3y)

How the sector's overall search interest tracks key macroeconomic indicators. A positive r means search tends to rise as the indicator rises; a negative r means search rises as the indicator falls. A strong correlation can reflect genuine economic sensitivity or simply a shared long-run trend, so weigh the direction against a plausible mechanism.

Methodology: Share of Search is GTAB-normalised Google Trends data, each brand expressed as a percentage of total sector search interest. 200 QSR / Casual Dining brands, US market; standings, movers and momentum cover the trailing 12 months, with five years of history shown for the trend and concentration charts. Updated monthly. © 2026 New Classic Consulting LLC.