We are built to crave certainty. Better we know we’re in trouble than left in limbo, but today’s economy is rife with uncertainty. As consumers and marketers, we’re living blow by blow in a world where we’re often presented with contradictory signals, looming disasters and delayed measures. Given a certain disaster we can plan our recovery, but faced with uncertain chaos we’re left paralyzed and reactionary.
We don’t know if the US or global markets are in an economic recession yet, but a ‘Certainty Recession’ is already here. We’re left asking if not knowing is worse than what’s coming? American consumers are left looking for indicators of our economic direction in everything from financial measures to lipstick and frozen pizza sales.
The Contradictory Economy and Looming Disaster
America is in the midst of a contradictory economy. Q1 US GDP figures show a -0.3% quarterly change, while imports, driven by stockpiling, increased by 40%. US Consumer confidence measures are decreasing to levels not seen since the pandemic (52.5 in April 2025 vs. 50 in June 2022), but US retail sales increased by 1.4% month on month vs. March 2025.
A majority of Americans believe Trump’s tariff strategy is causing disruption and raising prices (89% net likely to increase product prices), but many are uncertain on whether it will pay off in the end (50% net likely to increase jobs). 51% of Americans are only willing to accept a few months or less of economic disruption from tariffs, but the chaos they’ve brought looks to linger for much longer.
Amidst stories of shipping containers sitting in international ports, $2000 iPhones and limited holiday shopping options – tariffs buck the short term news cycle through changes, delays and unfolding policies. While the modern news cycle may flood consumers with stories, most lose a majority of attention within 5-7 days, creating a sense of certainty between discrete crises.
The lingering presence of tariff disruption isn’t just creating uncertainty, its destabilizing consumer attitudes and opinions. Demand for sectors changes based on breaking news – shifting shopping from prepping to impulse purchase.
Even as negativity towards the tariffs increases (from 42% in December 2024 to 64% in April 2025 amongst US adults), attitudes towards the tariffs’ ultimate target, China, have softened (33% of US adults hold an unfavorable view of China vs. 43% in March 2023). Uncertainty has also eroded support for other government policies, as US support for the TikTok ban has decreased from 50% in March 2023 to 34% in March 2025.
Unpredictable Consumers Create Uncertain Brands
Lingering uncertainty has also paralyzed business leaders and marketers, keeping them from creating long term plans for growth. While 62% of US CEOs believe the economy will experience a moderate to severe recession in the next 6 months, they’re still presented with increasing retail sales and variable consumer demand. Their belief in the tariffs’ negative impact (76% believe it will hurt the economy) and its blow to their confidence (CEO future outlook to date has decreased by 29%) are certain, but when and how the disaster will unfold isn’t.
Consumers are signalling shifts that have yet to materialize and brands aren’t ready to respond. Recent research shows that 55% of US consumers say they are switching to lower priced products, but only 5% of US retailers believe they will. In the face of uncertainty, many brands are choosing to hope nothing changes and clarity will come. Recession playbooks lay ready but untouched. So what is a brand supposed to do in this age of uncertainty?
Navigating the ‘Certainty Recession’
Uncertainty is by its very definition ambiguous, but the forces behind it aren’t. We’re caught in the midst of an accelerating cycle – with economic uncertainty driving consumer shifts in behavior and attitudes, whose uncertain actions subsequently drive brand inaction that creates slower economic growth and more economic uncertainty. While brands can’t stop this cycle on their own, they can take several actions to navigate it.
Engage, Don’t Disengage
Uncertainty creates inaction, as brands wait to see what settles before engaging. However, as previous recession research has shown, brands that continue to advertise and be present during periods of economic downturn and uncertainty are rewarded. Investing in an economic downturn doesn’t just pay off in the recovery.
The cost of inactivity is clear – advertisers that stopped advertising for a year saw, on average, a 16% sales decline according to Ehrenberg Bass. Alternatively, being present in periods of uncertainty has been shown to matter more. For example, during the 2008 recession, bargain clothing retailer TK Maxx increased marketing spend by 15% while others went quiet. Subsequently, 2009 data showed that 75% of its customers were new customers, acquired during this period. Disruption shifted customers into the brand because it invested to make itself available.
Clarify Your Value
Availability on its own isn’t enough, you have to provide value to customers. In times of economic uncertainty, your value proposition can’t be. Times like these are a perfect opportunity to refine what you stand for and ensure customers know what you offer. As consumers trade down, re-evaluate and switch, a clear offer can capture disproportionate growth.
US sporting goods retailer Academy Sports has operated with a three tiered pricing system for years, but as more affluent consumers have begun shopping with the brand, they’ve adapted their product range accordingly – shifting products out of their lowest pricing tier (from 85% to 65% of products currently). The 2008 recession saw UK grocer Waitrose take an alternative course of action, stretching an upmarket image into a line of cheaper ‘Essentials’ products which made up 19% of its sales one year after launch. Both examples show how value can be found by adapting with consumer behavior.
Considering brand value may seem like a complex task to undertake in a challenging time, but brands should be constantly refined. You should think of your brand as an interface between your company and the world around it – as the world changes, so should you. If you don’t know where to start, check out New Classic’s branding framework.
Find Pockets of Certainty
Beyond your core offering, additional brand value can come through being a source of certainty. Certainty itself has more value in times of disruption, whether it comes from sources like brand consistency or nostalgia.
Costco’s $1.50 Kirkland hotdog is a staple of price consistency and conversation during economic disruption, claiming to never change even as prices around it rise. In a more recent example, Verizon has introduced a price lock guarantee, attempting to defend mobile network share by freezing prices for 3 years.
Beyond price, nostalgia based communications can anchor a brand in culture or reference back to more positive times. Recent campaigns from Budweiser, in which the brand used OOH to highlight its role in cinema, and Coca-Cola, which highlighted the brand’s presence in popular culture’s books and scripts, both position brands as a constant presence in consumers’ lives. Alternatively, Nostalgic advertising from Neutrogena and Chili’s aim to associate with a simpler time for Millennial customers.
Plan to Test and Learn
Wherever your value comes from, brands have to additionally adapt how they plan in uncertainty. A traditional approach to advertising, with static strategy and delivery, is increasingly risky. Instead, brands need to find additional value in advertising from the insight each ad can create.
Every ad, and a customers’ response to it, can give guidance in uncertain times. Modern marketing is built on adaptability and insight, but it is even more vital in times of uncertainty. Including a hypothesis behind each piece of activity and resourcing to act on new insight is key to navigating the ‘Certainty Recession’. Brands need to aim to find ‘right’ through marketing vs. predicting what ‘right’ is at any given time.
Conclusion
Brands can’t predict what will happen next, but they can plan to offer clarity instead of expecting it. Through strategic planning and scenario thinking, brands can be the ones to help cut through part of the chaos around us, not just surviving uncertainty but helping themselves and others navigate it.
Want more data from this report, check out our full ‘Certainty Recession’ presentation here or visit https://newclassic.agency for more information
